Según los expertos, parece que la tendencia no sólo se consolida, sino que sigue creciendo. Los datos del informe del Observatorio de aedashomes.com constatan que la demanda de vivienda para invertir creció 1,9 puntos en los últimos seis meses de 2021.
Como nos aclaran desde eleconomista.es esta tendencia creciente se sustenta en dos claves; “la mayor capacidad de ahorro de las familias y el repunte de la inflación”.
En cuanto el aumento de la capacidad de ahorro; según el INE, la tasa de ahorro alcanzó en 2020, a consecuencia del Covid “el 14,8%; 8,5 puntos por encima de la alcanzada en 2019 y la más alta desde que comenzó esta serie estadística en 1995”. Y si bien es cierto que en 2021 la tasa bajó más de 3 puntos (11,4%) continúa siendo una cifra bastante alta comparada con la del 2019 (6,3%).
Respecto a la inflación; evidentemente este factor ha impactado de lleno en las economías de los hogares españoles haciendo que los ahorros vayan decreciendo a paso ligero. Como era de esperar “la escalada de los precios de la luz y el impacto del conflicto en Ucrania en el precio de las materias primas” han tenido una repercusión directa en esta capacidad de ahorro.
De ahí que muchas personas hayan visto en esta coyuntura, en principio no óptima, la mejor de las salidas para evitar que esta creciente inflación acabe con sus ahorros. Desde El Economista nos recuerdan que “el dinero que no se mueve pierde valor”. Por ello, destinarlo a invertir en la compra de una vivienda es “una de las opciones más interesantes del momento; más seguras y también más rentables.” En conclusión; a los ahorradores les preocupa tener su dinero parado y el residencial sigue siendo considerado como un ‘valor refugio’ en este contexto de incertidumbre.
En cuanto a las previsiones para el sector atendiendo al número de cierres de compraventa; 2021 cerró con “con más de 565.000 operaciones”, el mejor dato anual desde 2007. Y según el digital, el comienzo de 2022 “ratifica el buen momento del sector”.
Y de nuevo, el alquiler sigue siendo la preferencia de pequeños y medianos inversores; el último estudio de Idealista a este respecto estima que “al cierre del primer trimestre del año [el alquiler] ofrecía una rentabilidad bruta del 7,1%.”. Y, es más, comparado con otros activos, desde el Observatorio Inmobiliario de BBVA Research afirman que en los últimos seis años el alquiler “ha arrojado una rentabilidad media del 4%, frente al 1% de los depósitos, al 1% del bono a 10 años o el casi -1% del Ibex 35”.
Y respecto a la rentabilidad por localización; según los estudios de Idealista “Lleida es la capital española donde se puede lograr más liquidez, con una rentabilidad que alcanza el 8,5%. Tras ella, también se postulan como buenas opciones Huelva, con un rendimiento del 8,2%; Murcia, con un 8%; Santa Cruz de Tenerife, con un 7,6%; y Almería, con un 7,4%”.
El estudio, a su vez, refleja que en las grandes ciudades la rentabilidad se mantiene estable pero es menor. “Comprar una vivienda en Barcelona ofrece una rentabilidad del 4,9%, medio punto más que hace un año; mientras que hacerlo en Madrid tiene un retorno del 4,7%, igual que el ejercicio pasado. Por su parte, Valencia alcanza un retorno del 6,1%, cuatro décimas por encima de 2021; mientras que Málaga y Sevilla se sitúan en el 5,5% y el 6%, respectivamente, ambas con una décima más”.
¿Y cómo se vislumbra el horizonte de aquí a un año? Pues la mayoría de expertos coincide en que este buen ritmo se irá consolidando en el curso de los próximos meses y según el Observatorio de BBVA Research, apuntan incluso más alto; “la inversión en vivienda se incrementará un 4,1% en 2022, para acelerarse hasta un 17,1% en 2023”.
Fuente: eleconomista.es
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