Hace pocos días, según los datos optimistas que ofrecía el digital cincodias.elpais.com, si bien celebrábamos el significativo repunte en la compraventa de viviendas, hasta un 73,5% el pasado mes de junio respecto al mismo mes del año anterior; tan solo un día después en el mismo editorial de elpais.com leemos que “la previsión de los expertos es que la tendencia de mejora continúe en los próximos meses” pero esta vez se nos insta a la prudencia: “el sector se recupera pero no hay que olvidar las lecciones de la crisis de 2008”.
Según la redacción del diario, este “resurgir del ladrillo” se debe a diferentes motivos
A pesar de la crisis provocada por la pandemia, la economía española ha experimentado “un crecimiento del 2,8% entre los meses de abril y junio de este año 2021”. Estos datos positivos se han hecho igualmente palpables en el panorama laboral; todo lo cual ha reforzado una perspectiva de futuro más optimista.
Por otra parte, el ahorro familiar que propició el decreto del estado de alarma en marzo del año pasado, con el parón del consumo debido a los confinamientos y restricciones, se ha traducido en un incremento del ahorro particular “de hasta el 14,8% de la renta disponible al cierre de 2020, el dato más alto de la serie histórica”.
Y sumado a lo anterior, la financiación se sigue manteniendo favorable al comprador “El Banco Central Europeo mantiene su estrategia de tipos de interés ultrabajos para apuntalar la recuperación y eso tiene un reflejo automático en el euríbor a 12 meses, la principal referencia hipotecaria, que sigue en terreno negativo”.
De hecho, los préstamos en este pasado mes de junio “subieron un 87,8% en tasa interanual, sumando casi 35.000 contratos”.
A todo este clima de creciente confianza y de voluntad de consumo se añade un factor de corte más psicológico, y es el hecho de que muchas personas tras el confinamiento se han replanteado su idea de vivienda y buscan un cambio.
Como vimos en el artículo anterior, el aumento de compra de vivienda ha sido generalizado destacando, en valores absolutos, Andalucía con un total de 9.945 compraventas, seguida de Madrid con 7.998 y Cataluña en tercer lugar con 7.151. Del mismo modo cabe reseñar el crecimiento en Canarias y en la Comunidad Valenciana “gracias a las operaciones vinculadas a las segundas residencias”. La buena marcha de la vacunación y ese optimismo que anima el consumo y la compra ha contagiado a los inversores nacionales y extranjeros, que buscan principalmente en zonas costeras y con buen clima.
Consecuentemente, hay una mayor demanda “que también se empieza a notar en los precios de los inmuebles que el pasado mes de junio subieron un 2,3%”, después de meses donde los precios en general se mantenían congelados o incluso comenzaban a bajar.
A pesar de que la recuperación y normalización del sector después del varapalo sufrido es un hecho, tal y como advierte el editorial “para que esa recuperación sea sana y sostenible conviene que todos los actores de este mercado (familias, bancos, tasadores y supervisores) tengan muy presentes las lecciones que dejó la burbuja financiera que estalló en 2008. Entonces cayeron algunos de los grandes mitos económicos de este país: que el precio de los pisos nunca podía bajar y que la salud del sistema financiero era inquebrantable”.
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